Happy Prime Day: How the “Amazon Effect” is Changing Holiday Sales

Cyber Monday on a Tuesday, and Wednesday, in October? Welcome to 2020, the year to expect the unexpected.

Amazon Prime Day is the online retailer's biggest annual sale. Since its 2015 debut, Prime Day has been held in July as a way to celebrate Amazon’s founding (in July of 1994), but it was pushed to October 13th and 14th this year due to supply chain challenges as a result of Covid-19.

While some argue that this year’s delay is a gamble as Amazon’s version of “Christmas in July” has been so successful because many consumers are accustomed to shopping on themselves during that time, most media outlets agree this is yet another savvy business move by Amazon to condition consumers to preempt holiday sales. The move even prompted eMarketer to publish their first-ever Prime Day forecast where they expect that Amazon will generate $9.91 billion in sales worldwide, including $6.17 billion in the U.S., which is about what consumers spent on Black Friday in 2018.

I for one didn’t give much thought at first to the Prime Day move since Amazon (and now also other major retailers) has conditioned me to expect two-day shipping on purchases, however Covid-19 has caused so many unexpected supply chain issues that I’ve had to rethink holiday sales.

For example, with deals starting earlier this year, products could go out of stock even faster, so if you have your eye on something and want to wait closer to traditional holiday sales events, products that sell out on Prime Day might not be available for Black Friday and/or Cyber Monday. Additionally, with many retailers still reporting extended delivery times due to supply chain challenges, waiting until December to make a purchase might mean a gift will not arrive until after the holidays.

This “Amazon Effect” hasn’t just conditioned consumers, competitors including Target, Walmart, Best Buy, Kohl’s and J.C. Penney have had to adapt their business models by announcing their own plans to offer (early holiday) sales promotions, with Target and Walmart going so far as to host their own two-day events (“Deals Days” and “The Big Save”).

Could all these October sale events, combined with more consumers comfortable with online shopping and wanting to avoid large crowds because of the coronavirus pandemic, permanently extend the holiday season to before Halloween? Christmas radio stations already started popping up November 1st in recent years, so if the virtual cash register rings this week the way that eMarketer expects, then I would say yes.